Much has been said about the origins and consequences of global warming and human contribution to it through the greenhouse effect. It is obvious that one should primarily focus on the origin of the problem, such as by reducing emissions, if these are in fact capable of causing the greenhouse effect. In the midst of the on-going controversy about the origins of this global warming, everybody at least agrees that the planet is indeed undergoing climate change. And, with this certainty, one must face that fact that economic, social and perhaps even personal changes will become necessary.

Based on the assumption that the climate changes are here to stay and may even become intensified over the next few years, it will be necessary to adjust to this new reality. Governments and companies must be ready to cope with these changes. In the corporate world, the forward-looking organizations will survive and even grow in this challenging environment.

In this context, it is necessary for engineering to adapt as well. Engineering design is based on knowledge derived from past experiences. Weather forecasts, river behavior and many other characteristics of the environment are based on historical series. The longer the series, the greater the number of years of observation, the greater the assurance of predictability. But if the climate is changing, will the long-term series be able to represent the reality of coming years?

In fact, the very predictability of weather forecasts will also suffer from this lack of representative “historical series” and become less reliable.

But, in any case, the forecasts point to an increase in rainfall intensity in many parts of Brazil, as has already been occurring. If calculations for storm water runoff systems for this rainfall are based, for example, on series from the last 50 years, it is possible that they will be underdimensioned for what is to come in the next 10 years. If these systems are unable to handle the runoff, they will cause flooding or will be destroyed by the force of the waters. This indicates that the design criteria for these structures should be adjusted to this new reality, which also involves a revision of construction methods and probably an increase in costs.

Soil embankments will be exposed to more severe rain regimes, and will therefore be more subject to erosion or instability. Once again, it is necessary to review the calculation criteria for stability as well as the construction and protection systems of these embankments. Even natural embankments may no longer be stable in view of the changes in the rainfall regime, as one has seen recently.

Changes in the rainfall regime, with more intense droughts, result in a change in water availability. As a consequence, the water use licenses granted on the basis of series from the last 50 years may be overdimensioned. Basins subject to a lot of demand may have insufficient water, and public supply systems and farming, mining and industrial operations which have not taken this into account may become impracticable, even though they have their respective water use licenses.

Water supply or hydropower dams may have their regimes altered. Feasibility studies for projects based on historical series may not reflect future circumstances, seriously compromising the economic results of the investors, without mentioning the risk of loss of confidence in the electrical system relying on these dams. Worse than that, even the safety of the dams could be affected, since their design was based on conditions other than those foreseen for the future.

The increase in wind velocity and intensity also requires a revision of the calculation and design criteria of slender structures or roofing/covering. Even the design of a simple roof must be better evaluated in order to take into account the new climate changes.

More intense or more frequent atmospheric discharges would point to the need to revising the engineering criteria for the design of electrical systems or protection systems against such discharges.

And what about our famous reference to “sea level”, if this is changing ever more rapidly? Along the coastline, sanitary waste and rainwater runoff systems could stop working due to the change in this reference level.

In an environment not used or prone to changes in principles as engineering is, this need for change will take time to be assimilated. How will one say that the calculation of a given system was not based on historical series, same as everyone else does? And, if it is not based on historical series, on what will it be based? Which are going to be the “universal principles” to be adopted? Surely engineering worldwide will have to face these dilemmas in view of the recent climate changes.

But crisis situations also provide opportunities. In this regard, one can foresee the development of “climate change engineering” which will be capable of inserting in its design parameters the climate and environmental changes expected in the future. This revision of engineering criteria should permeate academia and the corporate world over the next years, resulting in an important and necessary evolution of engineering on a global basis. And Brazilian engineering, respected worldwide, cannot miss this boat.